Single Women Are Twice As Likely To Become Homeowners In 2022 Than Single Men | (12.6.22)
"The best investment on earth is earth." -Louis Glickman
What You Need To Know Today:
• Updated United States “trade balance” statistics were released this morning. These figures measure the difference in value between imported and exported goods/services during a given month. It’s important to note that these stats are reported on a 35-day lag, so today’s figures are representative of October 2022. According to the report, the latest trade balance was (-78.2B) beating the market expectation of (-80.1B) and the reported (-73.3B) for September.1 For added clarity, a positive figure indicates that exported goods and services were greater than imports. Today’s reading remained negative, indicating that the U.S. is a “net importer.” By the way, the U.S. is currently the world’s 3rd biggest exporter and 2nd biggest importer.
TL;DR — The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in October, but by less than the market had anticipated.
• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) published its annual profile of home buyers and sellers report, which contained a few interesting statistics. For example, according to NAR, First-time home buyers made up just 26% of the pool this year and the typical first-time buyer was 36 years old.2 This differs significantly from the same report last year where first-time buyers accounted for 34% of the pool and were at an average age of 33. Further, while 61% of 2022 buyers were married couples, 17% were single women, and just 9% were single men — meaning that single women were nearly twice as likely to have become homeowners in 2022. Lastly, unmarried couples made up 10% of the buyer pool which was the highest share of unmarried couples ever recorded in the U.S.
TL;DR — Single women significantly out-paced single men in home purchases. First-time home buyers are getting older. More unmarried pairs purchased homes than ever before.
• According to Realtor.com research, approximately 20% of United States home listings saw a price reduction over the past month. Moreover, some states are fairing considerably worse than others with Arizona (40.4%), Idaho (37.2%), Nevada (36.8%), and Utah (32.3%) all seeing price adjustments on more than 1/3 of listings.3 I do not yet have the full breakdown of all 50 states to analyze this further, but will update you if/when I do.
TL;DR — 1/5 of all U.S. home listings saw price adjustments over the past month. In at least four states 1/3 of listings saw adjustments.
Chart Of The Day:
There really is an index for everything… The Rolex Market Index measures the financial performance of Rolex watches on the secondhand market. It is based on the top 30 selling Rolex models (by transaction volume). The index is down (-7.9%) over the past year and (-15.2%) over the past six months. On top of the implication that the luxury goods market is finally slowing after an incredible boom from 2020 - early 2022, what sticks out to me is the fact that at its peak the average market price of a secondhand Rolex was ~$37,000, and is still ~$28,290 at the bottom. Framing that into real estate terms, that is a 20% down payment on an investment property worth $185,000 at the top and $141,450 at the bottom. Some might argue that a properly selected Rolex model is likely to appreciate more than a home at that price point over a long period of time (which could be true), but the Rolex certainly will not cashflow the way an investment property will… Not to mention, tying an investment to a specific company always runs the risk of said company doing something really stupid (*cough* Balenciaga *cough*) that damages the market value of your “asset”.
The Rolex Watch Market Index4
TL;DR — The luxury goods market seems to be finding a bottom following the 2020 - early 2022 boom. People are risking investment property down payments on watches.
Source: Realtor.com Data.
Source: WatchCharts.com.